M3 Manufacturing Growth Dashboard
Census Bureau M3 Survey  ·  April 2026  ·  Seasonally Adjusted  ·  66 Industries
Balanoff Industrial Team
How to read this scorecard
Shipments YoY
Actual goods leaving factories. Direct proxy for warehouse throughput and freight demand. Rising = real activity now.
Orders YoY
Incoming demand pipeline — ordered but not yet shipped. Leading indicator: rising orders mean space demand grows in 3–6 months.
Backlog trend
3-month change in unfilled orders vs prior 3 months. Building backlog = demand outpacing capacity. Strongest near-term space pressure signal.
3m momentum & Trend
Recent quarter shipments vs prior quarter (seasonally adj). The Trend badge compares this to YoY: ACCEL = turning up faster than the annual rate (call now), COOL = annual number is strong but losing steam.
Why blanks?
Census M3 only collects orders & backlog for durable goods. Food, pharma, chemicals, and nondurables have no orders data at source.
Orders > Shipments — demand accelerating
Backlog builds, capacity pressure rises. Tenants start looking for space within 3–6 months. Get in front of them now.
Orders < Shipments — demand slowing
Manufacturers burning backlog without replenishing. Space requirements contract. Avoid chasing tenants in this pattern.
How the score works (0–10)
The score answers one question: how likely is this industry to drive NJ industrial space demand right now? It’s built in three steps.
1. Demand signals
Points are earned from the M3 data: shipments growing (+2, plus +1 if >3%), orders growing (+2), orders outpacing shipments (+2), backlog building (+2), inventories falling (+1), and recent quarter accelerating (+1, plus +1 if strong).
2. Fair normalization
Durable goods can earn more points than nondurables (Census doesn’t track orders or backlog for food, pharma, chemicals). So raw points are scaled to a level playing field before comparing — a strong pharma sector isn’t penalized for missing data it could never have.
3. NJ relevance
The result is weighted by how likely the sector actually leases NJ industrial space. Pharma, food, beverage, chemicals, and logistics-heavy sectors score full weight; heavy industrial (foundries, refineries), defense, and shipbuilding score lower — they rarely become NJ warehouse tenants regardless of national momentum.
Level vs. momentum: The YoY columns show the level — how much bigger this sector is than a year ago. The 3m mom column and Trend badge show direction right now. A high score with ▲ ACCEL is an early opportunity (call now). A high score with ▼ COOL means demand is real but maturing — pursue, but you’re not early.
Industry rankings
Tiers: top target 8–10 · call first strong 6–8 watch 4–6 slow 2–4 avoid 0–2 · deprioritize
Industry
Tier
IndustryScore Ships YoYOrders YoYBklog3m momTrend Tier